The USD/INR pair is experiencing a second consecutive day of downward movement on Tuesday, although there is a lack of sustained selling momentum, resulting in the pair remaining within a well-known trading range that has persisted for several days.
Presently, spot prices hover around the significant level of 82.00, as bearish traders eagerly await a clear breach of the upward-sloping trend-line support originating from November 2022.
Following repeated failures to surpass the 83.00 level, a drop below the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average could serve as a new catalyst for bearish traders. Additionally, the oscillators on the daily chart have once again entered negative territory, indicating that the path of least resistance for the USD/INR pair is downwards.
However, it is advisable to exercise caution and await further confirmation of a decline below the monthly low, situated around the 81.75 region, before considering positions in anticipation of further depreciation.
If this occurs, the USD/INR pair could potentially experience an accelerated slide towards the next significant support near the 81.50 zone, and potentially even test levels below 81.00, including the year-to-date low reached in January.
On the other hand, the immediate resistance is currently seen around the 82.20 area, represented by the 200-day SMA. A sustained breakthrough above this level would strengthen the ascending trend-line support and potentially propel the USD/INR pair beyond the intermediate obstacle of 82.70-82.75. In such a scenario, bullish traders may attempt to breach the significant round figure of 83.00.
The 83.00 level has proven to be a formidable barrier since October 2022, and a successful breach would signify a fresh bullish breakout, setting the stage for an extension of the well-established uptrend observed since August 2022 in the USD/INR pair.
Subsequently, spot prices could surpass the all-time peak around the 83.40-83.45 region reached in October 2023 and target a reclaiming of the 84.00 mark.
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