The US Midwest farm belt is currently facing the most severe drought since 2012, intensifying in the past week and depleting soil moisture levels. This worrisome situation poses a threat to crop yields in the key corn and soybean production areas of the country.
However, a positive turn of events is anticipated as a series of rainfall is forecasted for the southern and central Midwest over the next two weeks. These rainstorms have the potential to stabilize or even improve the deteriorating crop conditions that have persisted for several weeks. Additionally, they can replenish soil moisture just in time for the critical pollination period of the corn crop in late July.
The recent improvement in the weather outlook caused a significant drop in corn and soybean markets this week. Previously, concerns regarding the dry start to the summer crop season had led to a rally in prices, reaching multi-month highs.
Nonetheless, the drought conditions have worsened in the primary crop production areas of the Midwest over the past week. Data from the Weekly Drought Monitor indicates that as of June 27, 65% of the region is experiencing moderate drought or more severe conditions, compared to 58% the previous week. This coverage represents the broadest area affected by drought since 2012.
The state of Iowa, the leading corn producer and the second-largest soybean producer, is facing moderate drought or worse in over 89% of its territory. Similarly, Illinois, the largest soybean grower and the second-largest corn producer, is affected in nearly 93% of its land.
According to Joe Woznicki, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group, the most concerning regions, accounting for approximately 45% of the corn and soy belt, lie right at the heart of the Midwest. However, he expects that the upcoming series of rain systems, commencing this weekend, will provide considerable benefits to crops, particularly in the central and southern areas of the Midwest.
Woznicki adds, “After the next two weeks, the main portions of the belt that are going to remain too dry would be southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin, northeast Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri, or about a quarter of the belt.”
Conditions in the High Plains exhibited some variability over the past week, with the drought worsening in eastern Nebraska and Kansas but improving in western Nebraska and the Dakotas, as indicated by the Drought Monitor data.
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