GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The British pound rose on Monday due to the weakened U.S. dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields, with GBP/USD increasing by 0.5% and approaching the technical barrier of confluence resistance at 1.2450. 

This level coincides with the 61.80% Fib retracement of the 2022 slump and the highs of December and January. 

GBP/USD

However, the daily chart shows that bullish momentum tends to fade around 1.2450, leading to pullbacks in the past four months. Thus, there is a possibility that cable’s recent advance may be running out of steam and could experience a downside correction in the near future. 

If this scenario plays out, GBP/USD could drop to 1.2270 and then 1.2150, the 50-day simple moving average. 

The next downside target is 1.1960. But, if the confluence resistance at 1.2450 is breached on higher volume, the bearish case would be invalidated, and a rally towards 1.2680 would be expected.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Similarly, EUR/USD rallied on Monday, up by 0.5% to 1.0890, backed by the softer tone of the U.S. dollar. The pair is now approaching the technical ceiling of cluster resistance at 1.0930, created by last month’s highs and a descending trendline that has been in play for almost two years. 

EUR/USD

The euro may be positioned for a topside breakout if market sentiment improves and ECB officials continue to support forceful monetary policy tightening in response to inflationary pressures in the region. If there is a bullish breakout, EUR/USD’s gains are likely to accelerate, leading to a retest of this year’s high at 1.1033. 

On further strength, the psychological mark of 1.1200 is the next upside target. However, if sellers take control and trigger a bearish reversal, initial support lies at 1.0730, close to the 50-day simple moving average. 

The next support level is at 1.0620, created by a short-term rising trendline in play since September 2022.

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